Why was the construction of the new Daular Airport postponed??

Since a few daysíthat's how it startedó average noiseáguy that looksíto come a few months ago, if you are lateó the start of constructionón of the new airport, but ¿becauseé them insteadó the constructionón of the new Daular Airport?

Possibly, Remember that a few months ago I publishedé a mega post about history, present, aerolílines and construction projectón of the one they call «Mega Aeropuerto Daular«.

In this publicationón and at least 6 añthe atreás, the authorities of Guayaquil with great fanfareíhave announced that for thisñO 2018 Startíto the constructionón of tan emblemático project: www.nlarenas.com/2017/06/guayaquil-2018-mega-aeropuerto-daular/.

This project will beíto beá the airport sás largest of the regionón, thought to have 3 landing strips in their final stage, adaptable and modal terminal so that in its first stage it can support a tráI stay 10 million passengers annually and that fáI could easilyíto increase up to más de 25 millions.

In a land 2.020 Hectoráareas the possibilities are almost limitless. In this space the airport will haveíto an enviable growth capacity throughout the regionón and with one of his 3 tracks with 4.100 meters long, to allowían direct flights málong steps to connect Ecuador with the world.

¿Becauseé them insteadó the constructionón of the new Daular Airport?

The answer is very fácil: the tránumber of both national and international passengers does not justify an investmentón so big al dífrom today.

The statesístatics speak for themselvesí solas. Guayaquil Airport in the úlast toñhas seen you as the núnumber of users does not grow at the rate or speed that a mega investmentón required to be justified before investors and municipal authorities.

Despite this growth that exists, the Númere are still not favorable to be able to make an investmentówhat caníto surpass the $900 millions of dólares in a construction periodón of 6 años.

The current terminal has a capacity to handle 7 million and a half passengers per yearñor after úlast extensionón and improvement recently releasedén the añO 2014, and the almost 4 current millions toúThey make it a loose terminal and very far from collapsing, withí happens at other airports in the regionón as is the case of Lima.

¿Whaté factors have influenced?

• Quito airport: hereí There are two points that need to be clarified..
  • First, Tababela in its beginningsí generó an affectationón in the tráI'm giftéstatic in all airports in the countryís, generated exclusively by the lack of víaccess aces at its inaugurationón, but in the traáinternational airport this airport continues to grow. Ecuadorians are notáWe were used to that distance and time, this landscape has been changing.
  • The second, and the máIt's important, is due to the important attractionón of new aerolídenies, frequencies and increased capacity that generateó thanks to the new facilities, like the runway. ¿In thaté This affects Guayaquil? I know how to clarifyá más down.
• Economía: It is known that Ecuador is not in the best condition.ón económica from various toños, less income or mistrust, people consume less, therefore travel less, spending less to secure the future.
• fuel subsidy: la eliminationón of aviation fuel subsidyón in the añO 2015 brought a significant drop in theápassenger traffic throughout the countryís, especially on the Quito route – Guayaquil, which until then was the second más important of Latinamérich in passengers and daily frequencies.
• distances: New roads have reduced land travel times and are the main competition for airlines.ílines and airports.
• city ​​factor: as i said in the first point, Quito has managed to attract new airlinesílines and frequencies (hereí I explain it), especially in the international, but this has to do with this phrase aeronáutica that I love: «the aerosolsílines fly where it isá the business, where there are passengers».
  • Guayaquil is the city más populated Ecuador, but this does not mean that people fly moreáI know that in Quito. The capital of Ecuador has fewer inhabitants, but its people fly más, so much giftéstic as internationally. if people don't fly, not arriveán the aerosolsídenies.
  • We are a paíit's very smallñO, Although both Quito and Guayaquil are important economicallyómica and population, the aerosolsíairlines prefer to operate to a single airport, to which más profit is going to leave them and reach the other in agreement with Aerolísocial or local lines. Let's say the airíLine X arrives in Quito and connects to Guayaquil local Z, así does not spend on personnel and operationsón in two airports so close.
• Factor Tame: it's no secret to anyone, to Tame affect crisisó to all airports. They reduced frequencies, they canceled routes and moved others. In the case of Guayaquil, Tame canceló the route to Esmeraldas, Latacunga  – Coca and recently to Cuenca, while alsoén reduced frequencies to Loja. in the international, to moveó the route más demanded from Guayaquil which is New York to Quito. It is añopen itó the route to Bogotaá and keep flying to Fort Lauderdale, help the núheritage.
• Factor aerolídenies: by the same city factor, Guayaquil has lost Iberia flights, Delta y United, which clearly diminishes its núgroupers and projections. He has won those of Spirit Airlines and Air Europa, but they do not replace the ones that have already left. We hope you return with theúgroupers on the rise.
• Taxes and fees: the tax factor was discussed in this post and I recommend that you read it and see it in detail: www.nlarenas.com/2018/02/entrevista-costos-tasas-aeroportuarias-quito-guayaquil/
• Ticket costs: The tickets in Ecuador are expensive and that stillálysis you can read it hereí: www.nlarenas.com/2017/09/por-que-son-tan-caros-los-pasajes-aereos-en-ecuador/. This affects the entire local industry, with more competition, all the actors can be seenán benefited.
• Graduationón turnístic: Guayaquil has given up land in a tourist wayística in front of Quito, where the investmentón to be the gateway to Ecuador It has been superior and the results are evident.

StadiumíPassenger statics at Guayaquil Airport

The municipal authorities of Guayaquil have indicated that to begin constructionón of the new airport, the tráinternational passenger traffic has to reach the 3.5 million annually, which is nowán very far away. What isá passing in the josé Joaquín de Olmedo, is that the airport isá growing, but not at the rate 2011 O 2014 and 2015, but growing steadilyún show the statusístatic:

There is a brake on growth, sí, but that is not why the airport has stopped growing, although globally, have 1 millón fewer passengers than the Quito Airport and a mega investmentóWhat is Daular like?, it's excessive right now.

Stadiumístatic passenger doméstatic

On Sunday flightséstics we see growth from the 2016, but what toún does not reach the bestñor compared to what is 2015:

Passengers on Sunday routeséstatic

The effect of Tame on the routes to Latacunga is clear, Esmeraldas, Loja and Cuenca, más the notable decline of the trádispute between Quito and Guayaquil after the eliminationón of the fuel subsidy, although it has grown thanks to the routes to Galápayments mainly:

Stadiumíinternational passengers

The AñO 2017, was the bestñor for the Guayaquil Airport of the úlast 4 años, a major boost, but very far from 3 million and a half that the authorities are looking for to start constructionón:

Passengers on international routes

The 2017 It was alsoén the best añor internationally and far exceeds the 2014. The route to Panamaá is the one that más grows and the one that más passengers move in Guayaquil, followed by Bogotáá and Miami, although this úThe latter shows a decrease in passengers transported in the 2017. New York tooén lowers his núpassenger grouper, once más by the Tame effect:

StadiumíPassenger Statics Quito Airport

For reference and to understand that the tráfico tooén has been affected throughout Ecuador, It is good to know the data of the main Ecuadorian airport in Doméstic and international.

The statesíQuito buildings show, unlike Guayaquil, a decreaseños 2015 and 2016, generated exclusively by sun flightséstatic, since international growth continues every yearños. Sayén the 2017 he turnedó to have global growth although driven by the international with 1.5% and -0.9% in the sunéstic:

*Variationón average corresponds to tráI stay nationally and internationally.

Until May 2018, Quito Airport has seen a increase of 4.6% in comparisonón with the añO 2017, having served in 5 months to 2,058,554 passenger.

** StadiumíDGAC statics, Municipality of Quito and others.

Passenger projections Guayaquil Airport

With current data and based on the growth of úlast 4 años, sayén for the añO 2031 Guayaquil Airport passíto the 3 million and a half passengers, taking into account the averages and a projection modelón:

For that same oneñO 2031, Guayaquil Airport arrivingíto the 6 million one hundred thousand passengers between sunéaesthetic and international based on current growth averages. With this numberúmero, the airport will haveía aún ability to 1 millón and a half más of passengers before reaching its limit:

An additional exercise playing with the numbersúheritage, if the average annual growth were 8% (varying between the 9% and 7 %), the goal of 3.5 millions of passengers will meetíbefore beforeñO 2026:

¿Whaté Can be done?

The Guayaquil Airport already has incentives for new airlinesídenies, all that isán performing, it is very positive, you have to keep it and push it. The image of the city must be improved as an attractive and profitable destination for these companies, that does not depend on the airport directly.

The Airport can't do anything about the economy.íto the país, does not correspond to him and is oblivious to his activities. Either, can compete with ground transportation, nor with the city factor, but yesí it can help, ask for help or support for the generationófield no.ñAtracci'són, as general ideas being part of tourism fairs, aviationón like Routes and others.

Guayaquil as a city, must improve its imageístics worldwide, this corresponds to both the Municipality and the Ecuadorian Government. It depends on this that IáForeigners want to fly to Ecuador, therefore más aerolídenies, without leaving aside that the guayaquileñowes them tooén fly outside, and ohí, la eliminationón of the Eco Delta Tax will beívery good to reduce the cost of tickets and that máEcuadorians fly (help everyoneís).

Conduct market studies for potential new domestic routeséstatic tooéIt is not necessary and that is mainly the job of the airlines.ídenies, but we must work together and in alliances to generate these documents that generateán benefits for the airport, city ​​and countryís. For example, a direct route from Guayaquil to El Coca or Lago Agrio couldíto be very attractive, the studies will tellán.

A differentiating factor must be sought and exploited. Guayaquil is the main economic cityóbit of breadís, this mustíto be an advantage and look for example, the business passenger as a source of growth and attractionón of aerolílines whose business isá in that niche.

There are many máI know what to do, but mainly in a personal way, Eastá in cómo be promoted, both airport and city. Both must work for a single purpose., not thinking only about the constructionón of the Daular, but alsoén, in socio-economic developmentómica of the city, that as a benefit it will haveá reach the 8 millions of passengers that allow us to start or think about the constructionóNo. of Mega Airport.

The úonly way to grow, is that frequencies are increased, new aerosols arriveídenies, destinations that are not currently flown are exploited, those that have gone will resume and a great impulse will beáon sun flightséstatic, that a lot depends on the policiesílocal ethics such as the reviewón of taxes that make tickets more expensive and slow down the marketéreo, which throughout the world is a fundamental axis of development and economicía.

Desafíor short term

The main challengeíO, given the indefinite postponement of constructionón de Daular, Eastá on the runway of Guayaquil Airport. Life úfor part úlast general paving runs outáPlease, given the weather conditionsáethics and normal use of operations.

the track of 2.790 meters, already requires several closures where emergent works are carried out several times, during theñO, for patching the asf folderálithic that is worn and affected by the continuous normal wear and tear of the operationón of más de 120 daily operations that ahí are made.

The authorities will now haveán have to locate a specific budgetífic to extend life útrack tool, which may require interventionócomplete n, with its operational closures for several daysíup to weeks, all depending on cóhow to get this job done.

This general and complete maintenance of the track will beá what to do sooner or later, with the consequent inconvenience for Aerolílines and users due to the closures that will beán what to do.

In these toños, you can seek to continue improving current operations, update procedures and systems to keep the airport current and on par with the rest of the airports in the regionón, that until today, Eastá about the great majoría.

¿Cuáing to buildá Daular? There is no exact date and beá now yesí, very difficultíIt was easy to know exactly until the authorities in someños, announce it again.

*** The reason for this post is to show a visionón different from what happens with the Guayaquil Airport and to propose some ideas, that surely isán working or have been thought about before.

¿Whaté should beíwhat to do to boost the growth of this airport?