in aviationóThere is no curiosity orécan'tíamos call it a myth, which says that every time there is an accidentéreo, hornbeamán dos más. This is known as the «rule of 3» or rule of three in aviationón.
For many toños, exactly from 1919, when it startedó the state recordístatic of accidentséprisoners around the world, some researchers detected a peculiarity.
Although it is not a rule as such, it is not always complied with and obviously it is not a law, it's a situationón, Although it is a coincidence, it has been repeated several times throughout history..
before continuing, Let's differentiate what is an accident from an incident:
Damn itéreo
It is a situationóunexpected, that as a result of this event, injuries or deaths occur to the people on board the aircraft.ón or external to it and givesños to the property be this avión or other properties external to the aircraft.
An accident is also classifiedén, when the avión as a result of what happened, is totally irreparable or damagedños are older and should be classified as pérdida total.
There are some particular cases, where although by concept it can be classified as an accident, the grandfatherócan not be repaired later.
Accident aéreo
like accidents, They are a situationóunexpected, but the difference is that in éthis does not result in injuries or vítimas generated by the event, as they do not occurñnon-repairables in properties.
in an incident, the aircraft can be repaired within parámeters established by the manufacturer.
The «rule of 3» or rule of three in aviationón
Now let's talk with data, although it is not a constant, if only the a is reviewedñO 2018, the rule is sometimes met. It must be clarified that there is no difference of días between cada accidente isáSeparated, but is usually fulfilled within a week of the first event.
We can see the following accident matches, fulfilling the «rule of 3» in aviationón so far from toñO:
Accidents toéprisoners 2018
| 06-Jan-2018 | Antonov An-2TP | YV1944 | Unknown |
| 07-Jan-2018 | Cessna 208B Grand Caravan | 5Y-FDC | Unknown |
| 09-Jan-2018 | Embraer EMB-110P1 Bandeirante | C6-MIC | Pineapple Air |
| 13-Jan-2018 | Boeing 737-82R (WL) | TC-CPF | Pegasus Airlines |
| 16-Jan-2018 | BAe-748 | S2-AAX | Bismillah Airlines |
| 16-Jan-2018 | Antonov An-2 | UK | Kazakhstan Air Defence Force |
| 25-Jan-2018 | Gulfstream G200 | 5N-BTF | Nestoil |
| 25-Jan-2018 | Airbus A320 | Unknown | Unknown |
| 29-Jan-2018 | Shanxi Y-8GX-3 | 30513 | China Air Force |
| 06-Mar-2018 | Antonov An-26 | RF-92955/52 | Russian AF |
| 11-Mar-2018 | Canadair Challenger 604 | TC-TRB | Basaran Holding |
| 12-Mar-2018 | DHC-8-402Q Dash 8 | S2-AGU | US-Bangla Airlines |
| 27-Jul-2018 | Antonov An-2R | 9S-GFS | Air Kasai |
| 27-Jul-2018 | Boeing 767-38EER | N641GT | Atlas Air |
| 28-Jul-2018 | ATR 72-500 (72-212A) | YJ-AV71 | Air Vanuatu |
| 30-Jul-2018 | Antonov An-2R | RA-40649 | private |
| 31-Jul-2018 | Embraer ERJ-190AR | XA-GAL | Aeroméxico Connect |
| 04-Aug-2018 | Junkers Ju-52/3mg4e | HB-HOT | Ju-Air |
Accidents toéprisoners 2019
| 9-Mar-19 | Douglas DC-3 | HK-2494 | LASER |
| 10-Mar-19 | Boeing 737 MAX 8 | ET-AVJ | Ethiopian Airlines |
| 10-Mar-19 | Hawker Siddeley HS-125-600A | fake reg. | private |
| 13-Apr-19 | Rockwell Sabreliner 65 | N265DS | Classic Aviation |
| 14-Apr-19 | Let L-410UVP-E20 | 9N-AMH | Summit Air |
| 16-Apr-19 | BN-2B-27 Islander | CC-CYR | Archipiélakes Services Aéprisoners |
we have to clarify, this is quite a subjective topic, since many accidents for example, they are not made púwarlike by not being mediumáethically interesting or are really minor and put them in the «rule of 3» not to beíto very lógic.
This famous «ruler» it is used más when they are major accidents or there are deaths, but if we rely only on the general concept of what an accident is, the coincidences are greater and it is what we see in the tables above.
If the accidents of all theños, we will find that at least 8 sometimes it is giveníthis «ruler», But if it is based on major accidents like the Aerom oneéxico in Durango, this coincidence decreaseíenough.
¿Does it exist or is it just a coincidence?? It depends on each personóI want to understand it, but one way or another, there is a constant.
I invite you to see the world list of accidents so that youú you find the same «rule of 3» hereí eachñO: https://aviation-safety.net/database/
Either way, it is not MáThat's a curious fact, there is no reasoné be afraid and the aviationón is still the means of transport másafest in the world.
Y tú, ¿thaté do you think?
Another strange thing is that before the MD-11 and DC-10 were "downgraded" to freighters there were hundreds of accidents at any given time involving these. 2 aircraft models.
AND NOW??
There are so many MD'S and DC'S of Fedex, centurion, Western Global, AND NO ONE HAS CRASHED, what change?
Changed that the errors that generated those accidents were corrected.
Hundreds of accidents? What are you taking about?
it's very subjective, but in case it is, make it just a minor incident
Coincidence or rule is something that occurs quite frequently and cannot be denied.
Definitely, there is some relation.
The accident or incident description is wrong, there are incidents where a person dies and it continues to be an incident, for example when the propeller of an airplane hits a person, wound or kill her, it's an incident, In addition, the total destruction of an aircraft is not required for it to be an accident., landing on a non-locking gear leg and some surface touching the runway, It is an accident even if the damage is minor.
I disagree, the basic definition of an accident is when there is a death or total loss of the aircraft. The definition is obtained from ICAO.
I think it's a coincidence, similar to that of the "27 Club" of dead rockers. Getting a pattern for these cases would be to validate the butterfly effect.
Yes, I think the same, it's an unfortunate coincidence.