Curiosity: The "rule of 3" in aviation

in aviationóThere is no curiosity orécan'tíamos call it a myth, which says that every time there is an accidentéreo, hornbeamán dos más. This is known as the «rule of 3» in aviationón.

For many toños, exactly from 1919, when it startedó the state recordístatic of accidentséprisoners around the world, some researchers detected a peculiarity.

Although it is not a rule as such, it is not always complied with and obviously it is not a law, it's a situationón, Although it is a coincidence, it has been repeated several times throughout history..

before continuing, Let's differentiate what is an accident from an incident:

Damn itéreo

It is a situationóunexpected, that as a result of this event, injuries or deaths occur to the people on board the aircraft.ón or external to it and givesños to the property be this avión or other properties external to the aircraft.

An accident is also classifiedén, when the avión as a result of what happened, is totally irreparable or damagedños are older and should be classified as pérdida total.

There are some particular cases, where although by concept it can be classified as an accident, the grandfatherócan not be repaired later.

Accident aéreo

like accidents, They are a situationóunexpected, but the difference is that in éthis does not result in injuries or vítimas generated by the event, as they do not occurñnon-repairables in properties.

in an incident, the aircraft can be repaired within parámeters established by the manufacturer.

The «rule of 3» in aviationón

Now let's talk with data, although it is not a constant, if only the a is reviewedñO 2018, the rule is sometimes met. It must be clarified that there is no difference of días between cada accidente isáSeparated, but is usually fulfilled within a week of the first event.

We can see the following accident matches, fulfilling the «rule of 3» in aviationón so far from toñO:

Accidents toéprisoners 2018

Accidents toéprisoners 2019

we have to clarify, this is quite a subjective topic, since many accidents for example, they are not made púwarlike by not being mediumáethically interesting or are really minor and put them in the «rule of 3» not to beíto very lógic.

This famous «ruler» it is used más when they are major accidents or there are deaths, but if we rely only on the general concept of what an accident is, the coincidences are greater and it is what we see in the tables above.

If the accidents of all theños, we will find that at least 8 sometimes it is giveníthis «ruler», But if it is based on major accidents like the Aerom oneéxico in Durango, this coincidence decreaseíenough.

¿Does it exist or is it just a coincidence?? It depends on each personóI want to understand it, but one way or another, there is a constant.

I invite you to see the world list of accidents so that youú you find the same «rule of 3» hereí eachñO: https://aviation-safety.net/database/

Either way, it is not MáThat's a curious fact, there is no reasoné be afraid and the aviationón is still the means of transport másafest in the world.

Y tú, ¿thaté do you think?