Once the global emergency over the coronavirus o COVID-19, the aviation industryón do not come backá to be the same. Times of change are coming.
It is not the first time that the aviationón is affected by diseases. Ya pasó with the SARS, H1N1, Ebola or other factors such as the 11 September 2001, events where it is demonstrated that aviationón is without a doubt, one of the industries más financially sensitive to external factors.
After coronavirus, aviationón not beá the same
Airports without flights and planes without passengers, that is the current panorama that aviation is experiencingón globally, in some países máI know that in others, but the affectationón is general and hitá to all.
The first affected were, lógically, the aerosolsíChinese lines and so onáethics, which concentrate due to the size of these markets, near to 30% of the tráI'm theéworld prisoner and who were waiting for thisñor grow one 10%.
As first effects, ICAO calculationó a péloss for the industry greater than the 4 one billion dóhomes on a global level and only talking about passengers, but the panorama has changed and now the forecasts are much moreánegative s.
Not less than US$113 billion from dólares is estimated to beá the impact global for all players in the aviation industryón and if we add to tourism, the situationón es críethics and proportions éspikes never seen before.
Within this negative panorama and to which measures of the states to suspend flights in order to stop the spreadón of coronavirus, Once the crisis is over, aviationón not come backá to be equal.
Así, this is my proóstic, which of course isá It's just an opinionón personnel based on previous similar cases and the events we are experiencing:
- Aerolíneas pequeñbut not surviveán: at least not all of them will be able toán hold the pélosses generated by this crisis, no other optionón what to close.
- Aerolímedium lines mayán go out «with just»: tight and on the verge of closing, some surely mustán ask for support from governments or investors to survive.
- Aerolíbig ones: the large groupséprisoners faceán the más big pérdidas económicas of the sector, but thanks to its large investors and market power it will come oután forward and even strengthened thanks to the closure of smallñthe medium actors, it is included, of the purchase of these by the consolidated groups, changing theí once más the industry landscape and re-concentrating the market in a few.
- airports: let's not forget the airports, that without them the aerosolíneas no tendríand dówhere to operate. The terminals toéareas of the world to faceán big péloss seeing reduced drástatically its passengers throughout the entire year.ñO, affecting all companies around this activity and limiting their growth plans.
- Recover usón: once the situationón start to calm down and coronavirus cases go down, theseí marketá sooner or later, at least 6 months lateréwe will be able to see a recoveryón real in the industry and that the núexpected or at least equal to 2019, can be seen in the statesístatics in order toñO.
This is my little oneñor contribution and projectionón of what I estimate will happená, you whaté they think, ¿cuáthey will surviveán y witháclose themán?
And the value chain the pilots ? No, nothing happens with them. ?
It's a good theme, but I have avoided talking about industry jobs in general, being a very delicate topic.
It is time to rethink the travel agency as a traditional model , with the
Number of applications and depending on consolidators for issuing tickets with very low margins, I don't see a way out in the short term., perhaps specialization or receptive tourism is the alternative, what do you think , Cheers
Good point, in the last moment, Before this whole crisis, people were returning to the agencies because of the trust and having a place to go to complain., what has just happened these days with people who bought from online agencies and have not been able to change their reservations, I think that not everything is lost for traditional agencies.
I think this virus can leave positive things in the industry, for instance: that the standards be made more rigorous, aviation regulations and laws, and that the ICAO be ruthless when applying its laws, whoever is commenting on them, and that a precedent always be left so that it never happens again, In the case of the bully Mrs.. Mayor of Guayaquil who committed a crime should be punished as stipulated by law.
On the other hand, I think it would be time for airlines to merge and strengthen themselves, massifying the service and thus generating movement in the industry., optimizing resources, equipment and people, for the benefit of users and in general energizing this important sector such as air transport. Greetings
Hello there!
Thanks for your article. It has been very useful to me and, if you do not mind, can I ask you a question? My husband lives in Germany and I would like to know when he could fly there…? How much do you estimate? I'm a little desperate because I don't know when it could be, yes for July, August…
¡Gracias!
It is uncertain, We have to wait and see how the emergency progresses.
Does anyone know what a GDS is?? Still vital in the ticket distribution and marketing chain, well as an example SABER suffered a reduction in the value of its shares 25 usd a 0,50 cents. Given how things are, I doubt that the industry will recover in the next few years. 2 years.
I believe that the recovery will be faster than expected or at least find a balance again.
Hello Nicolás, unfortunately I think that the effect will last much longer, at least a year, especially on transatlantic flights.. This virus will greatly affect tourism, especially in Europe and Asia.. Greetings
The effect will be long, but I do think that some 8 months begin to recover occupancy averages.
very interesting appreciation , However, let us also not leave aside that the ICAO AND IATA would have to update their regulations so that it is clearer. , and thus avoid embarrassment like what happened in Guayquil, Another thing, the recovery will be slow because after this happens many people will be afraid of flying with someone by your side.
That will be the challenge for everyone., restore confidence, It is not the first virus nor the last that we will have in our history.
I agree with you Nicolás and I add on my part, Private services with executive jets will probably grow, This is because in the initial weeks after the quarantines, the business world will continue (and it is essential that it be like this), However, many executives who before the crisis were regular passengers on commercial airlines, They will be wary of flying with 100 or more pax.
Interesting, could be, but the costs are also not for everyone, it would be very small.
How they would be in Ecuador, Tame and Aeroregional, which are known to be in bad shape economically.
It is known about Tame, from Aeroregional I have not seen what you mention. Let's see what happens after the crisis.
Interesting analysis from another point of view. I mean mine (doctor). Great losses for everyone in proportion to their investments.
A hug Nico
Greetings Ignacio!