La Associationón International Transport Aéreo (THERE IT IS) released its financial outlook for the industry toéarea worldwide showing important pélosses for this sector during the 2020.
In a new press release, IATA hizo público his stilláfinancial lysis, in which the aerosols are expected toíthey don't lose $84.3 one billion dólares in 2020 for a net profit margin of -20.1%. Revenues fallán one 50% a $419 billion of $838 billion in 2019. On 2021, it is expected that the pélosses are reduced to $15.8 billion as revenue increases to $598 billion.
Within the declared crisis of the industryérea, thanía a díto mark más your pélosses in the face of enlargementón of the paíyou know to maintain travel restrictions, the organization disseminatedó your study, that allows you to see how long it will beá the recoveryón what to takeá más de 4 años:
Pronómain attic for 2020
Passenger demand evaporatedó as international borders closed and paíwere blocked to prevent the spreadón del virus. This is the biggest driver of péindustry lossesérea. At point máApril low, The journey toéoverall reo was approximately 95% below the levels of 2019.
There are indications that the tráit is a figá slowly improving. However, tr levels are expected toáfico (en el Revenue Passenger Kilometers) for 2020 decrease by a 54,7% in comparisonón with 2019. The núnumber of passengers will reduceá half to 2,25 billion, approximately equal to the levels of 2006.
Passenger revenue is expected to fall to $241 billion (below $ 612 billion in 2019). This is greater than the caíthere histórich demand, which reflects a caíexpected day of 18% in performance per passenger, since the aerosolílines are trying to encourage people to fly again throughés of the stimulationóno. of prices. Load factors are expected to average 62.7% for 2020, some 20 percentage points below récord de 82.5% reached in 2019.
Fuel prices offer some relief. On 2019, average jet fueló $77 / barrel, while the pronóaverage price for 2020 It is $36.8. The fuel is expected to represent the 15% of overhead costs (in comparisonón with him 23.7% on 2019).
The load is úsingle bright spot. In comparisonón with 2019, total tons of cargo transported are expected to decrease by 10.3 million tons to 51 millions of tons. Nevertheless, A severe shortage in cargo capacity due to unavailability of belly-load on passenger planes is expected to increase rates by a 30% during theñO. Revenue per load reachán a réclose cord of $110.8 billion in 2020 (compared to $ 102.4 billion in 2019). As part of industry revenue, the burden contributeá approximately a 26%, an increase vs. 12% on 2019.
regional performance 2020
All regions registerán pélosses for the industryéarea in 2020. The crisis has acquired a dimensionón similar in all parts of the world, with capacity cuts ranging from 10 a 15 percentage points or más, behindás from caíyes from the demand of más of the 50% accumulated.
| Región | passenger demand (RPKs) | Passenger capacity (ASKs) | Net earnings | Comments |
| Global | -54.7% | -40.4% | -$84.3b | |
| North America | -52.6% | -35.2% | -$23.1b | Am's large domestic markets are expected toérich North and financial support for the airlinesíU.S. businesses under the CARES Act performñin a key role in the recoveryón. |
| Europe | -56.4% | -42.9% | -$21.5b | The progressive opening of intra-European travel has the potential to boost the recoveryón, as long as onerous quarantine measures are avoided. Chains attached to government aid packages, particularly for propóenvironmental sites, dutyán be managed carefully to avoid unintended consequences such as competitiveness.ñada. |
| Asia-Pacífico | -53.8% | -39.2% | -$29.0b | Asia-Pacífico was the first región in feeling the worst of the COVID-19 crisis. It is expected to record the highest péabsolute losses in 2020. |
| middle East | -56.1% | -46.1% | -$4.8b | The prices más basses del petróleo addáin pressón additional to a difítarget the situationón económica within the regionón. The recoveryón of súper connectors of the regionócan'títo fall behind the expected phase of the restart with national and regional routes followed by long-haul international routes. |
| Américh latina | -57.4% | -43.3% | -$4.0b | Américh Latina enteró in the crisis later. The governments of the regionón have implemented some of the measures máextreme s in téterms of border closures that couldíto delay recoveryón. |
| Áfear | -58.5% | -50.4% | -$2.0b | The course of the virus in this regionón aún has not been seen completely. However, border closuresáThey have practically stopped flights. It will be neededá international support to complement the limited means that the governments of the region haveón to provide aid packages. |
Péreduced losses in 2021
With open borders and increasing demand in 2021, The industry is expected to reduce its péorders to $15.8 billion for a net profit margin of -2.6%. The aerosolsíneas seráin recovery modeón but aún well below pre-crisis levels (2019) on many performance measures:
- It is expected that theúmere total passengers recover to 3.38 billion (approximately the levels of 2014 when thereía 3.33 billion travelers), what isá well below the 4.54 billion travelers in 2019.
- Overall revenue is expected to be $598 billion, what to beíto an improvement of 42% on 2020, butún one 29% below the $838 billion of 2019.
- Freight demand is expected toéArea to be strong as businesses restock at start of recoveryón económica, while a slow return of the passenger fleet limitsá the growth of load capacity and maintainá Stable charging performance at 2020.
- Jet fuel prices are expected to rise at an average of $51.8 per barrel for the añO, as economic activity increasesóGlobal mica and petr demandóleo. Although that addsá some pressureón to costs in airlinesídenies, the price per barrel is similar to that of 2016 ($52.1) and followá being the más low since 2004 ($49.7).
The úonly measure that allowsá for the industry to recoverá fly again and at this point dependá and from the appropriate decisions of each government.
